Hot & Hybrid Wars: The Future of Obsolete Warfare

Solid-state gyroscopes may soon make gps jamming obsolete in conflict zones, improving safety for civil aircraft. Yet, this technological advance isn’t all positive. While GPS jamming currently confuses enemy missiles, its elimination could bring new challenges, highlighting the dual-edged sword of technological progress in electronic warfare.

GPS Jamming Mystery?

GPS jamming, a potent weapon in today’s conflicts, is facing its twilight. Subscribe to Big Think on Substack for weekly insights on game-changing stories, free of charge. What appears to be a weather map conceals a different kind of disturbance. The red hexagons mark zones where GPS signals were disrupted in the past day. This jamming, which disables positioning systems in electronic devices, including those guiding aircraft, can lead to disasters. Its role in the tragic crash of Azerbaijan Airlines 8243, claiming 38 lives, underscores its potential for devastation.Join the conversation on LinkedIn to explore the future beyond GPS jamming.

GPS jamming, a phenomena primarily observed in global conflict zones, is vividly illustrated by the widespread distribution of red hexagons. These hexagons paint a striking picture, with dense concentrations emerging over and around European Russia, the Black Sea region encompassing Ukraine, vast portions of Turkey and the volatile Middle East. Furthermore, the Caucasus and Caspian Sea, notably the site of the tragic Azerbaijan Airlines crash, also bear the scarlet mark. Farther east, the skies above Indian-administered Kashmir and war-torn Burma/Myanmar, where civil unrest has persisted since 1948, are similarly stained.

In the midst of this global landscape of interference, a particular military radar system stands out. Mounted on a substantial, multi-wheeled vehicle painted in a striking shade of green, and displayed outdoors on a concrete surface under clear skies, Russia’s Krasukha-2 electronic warfare system looms large. This system, designed to disrupt the signals of enemy missiles and aircraft up to a remarkable 160 miles (250 km) away, represents a significant force in the realm of electronic warfare.

Reports indicate that variants of the Krasukha, which translates to “nightshade” in Russian, have been deployed in Syria. There, they have been utilized to block the GPS signals of U.S. forces, further highlighting the strategic importance and widespread impact of GPS jamming in today’s global conflict zones.

GPS jamming has become one of the most prevalent forms of electronic warfare, disrupting aviation’s heavy reliance on the global positioning system. Reports indicate frequent jamming activities near the U.S.-Mexico border, by North Korea towards its south, and by China in the direction of Taiwan. The technology has been used to down surveillance drones and, in one instance, even grounded an Apache helicopter. Its widespread use is not just limited to these regions; it’s also being employed in and around Ukraine. However, contrary to what one might assume from this snapshot, GPS jamming isn’t a widespread concern in the rest of the world, according to flight tracking experts FlightRadar24. To appreciate the significance of GPS in aviation, it’s helpful to recall a time before its existence. Less than a century ago, when Charles Lindbergh made his record-breaking solo flight across the Atlantic in 1927, there were no satellites to guide him. Nowadays, GPS is an integral part of aviation, making its disruption through jamming a significant tactical move in various conflicts.

Modern aircraft rely on satellites and GPS signals for precise positioning, a far cry from the 1920s when a compass and dead reckoning sufficed. Back then, a pilot’s remarkable three-mile accuracy landing in Dingle Bay, Ireland after a transatlantic flight was deemed impressive. Nowadays, with GPS technology, aircraft can pinpoint their location with much greater accuracy, essential in our busy, modern skies. This advance in navigation ensures safety and efficiency, broadcasting exact positions to the world.

Signals from satellites, including America’s GPS, Europe’s Galileo, Russia’s GLONASS, and China’s BeiDou, collectively known as the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), play a crucial role in pinpointing the exact geographical position of aircraft receivers. This information is then relayed to ground stations and other aircraft, ensuring seamless communication. However, solar storms can pose a threat, causing interruptions or degradation in GNSS signals. More concerning are the human-made, malicious disruptions that are increasing in frequency, particularly GPS jamming. This involves saturating receivers with spurious signals, rendering GPS or GNSS navigation impossible for aircraft. Such jamming is a dangerous phenomenon that can severely impact aviation safety.

GPS jamming, while inconvenient for aviation, is generally not a prohibitive factor. This is due to aircraft employing a combination of satellite positioning and other systems, specifically WAAS and GBAS, to pinpoint their location. Airlines are well-versed in GPS jamming and their crews are trained to utilize backup systems, ensuring flight safety. However, it’s important to note that most GPS jamming isn’t primarily aimed at airplanes. Instead, it can be utilized to disrupt various GPS-reliant missiles, drones, and even phones, potentially leading to unusual scenarios like those seen in Strange Maps #1074, where GPS spoofing tricks receivers into transmitting false locations.

GPS jamming, a technique employed by Russia, has been used to counter Ukrainian drone attacks, as seen in the incident over Grozny, where an Azerbaijani passenger jet was likely mistaken for an enemy projectile due to GPS interference. This tactic, however, extends beyond Russia’s borders, indicating its use as an electronic nuisance in the hybrid “shadow war” against Europe. Instances of GPS jamming have been reported in Finland after a NATO membership discussion between its president and former U.S. President Joe Biden, and in Poland following the activation of an anti-missile system near Kaliningrad. These incidents suggest a broader strategic use of GPS interference by Russia, both internally to thwart enemy attacks and externally as a disruptive force.

GPS jamming has reached unprecedented levels in Norway’s northern Finnmark region, with authorities now considering these incidents as the “new normal” and ceasing their logging by mid-2024. The phenomenon isn’t isolated; soon after Bulgaria and Romania’s entry into the Europe-wide visa-free Schengen zone on December 12, 2024, Sofia, the Bulgarian capital, experienced significant GPS disruptions. Such interference has also been a notable factor in the recently halted conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, where it’s been used to disrupt enemy missiles and drones. However, this electronic warfare tactic doesn’t just affect military operations; it’s also had a widespread impact on civilian flights, causing disruptions for local departures, arrivals, and even those simply passing through the affected areas. These disruptions can lead to bizarre and sometimes comedic situations, as one Beirut-based Uber driver recently discovered when his online map application suddenly placed him in the Gaza Strip.

GPS jamming has caused widespread disruptions, with dating apps in the Middle East showing matches in ‘enemy countries.’ North America, though free from hot or hybrid wars, still faces the threat of GPS interference. Criminals are exploiting this technology for drug trafficking, vehicle theft, and other illicit activities. In recent years, American airports have also experienced occasional GPS jamming and spoofing incidents. As privacy concerns and conspiracy theories gain traction, an increasing number of citizens are acquiring jamming devices, posing a growing challenge for authorities in the U.S.

GPS jamming and spoofing have become a significant nuisance for industries like civil aviation. To address this, two tech giants have developed a groundbreaking technology dubbed the “gyroscope on a chip,” a miniaturized version of the traditional optical gyroscope that was once a bulky alternative to satellite navigation. This innovation emerged in 2018 when CalTech scientists revolutionized the solid-state gyroscope, reducing it to the size of a grain of rice. However, a more comprehensive solution is still needed. Currently, the absence of an automated, real-time national detection system for GPS interference poses a threat to government, emergency, and commercial operations. This vulnerability could be mitigated by harnessing the power of over 300 million smartphones in use across America. These devices, forming one of the most potent distributed sensor networks globally, have the potential to be transformed into a crowdsourced tool for detecting GPS/GNSS interference.

In recent months, innovative inertial navigation devices have emerged from Anello Photonics in Santa Clara, California, and OSCP in Montreal, Canada. These remarkable technologies offer precise geographical positioning and directional reporting, eliminating the need for satellite signals. Compact and highly efficient, these devices promise widespread benefits for passenger planes, drones, autonomous tractors, and even unmanned underwater vehicles navigating the vastness of the ocean. Moreover, this satellite-free navigation technology is poised to enhance civil aviation safety, while also raising concerns about its potential to increase the lethality of military drones.